State Your Case: No. 1 goalie for Sweden at 4 Nations Face-Off

From the onset, Sweden had a tough call when it came to its No. 1 goalie at the 4 Nations Face-Off, the best-on-best tournament being held Feb. 12-20. The knee injury sustained by Jacob Markstrom of the New Jersey Devils on Jan. 22 only muddied those waters.

He will miss the tournament, and one of the other goalies in consideration, Linus Ullmark of the Ottawa Senators, just returned to action Tuesday after being out for six weeks because of a back injury. Filip Gustavsson of the Minnesota Wild is in the mix, as is Samuel Ersson of the Philadelphia Flyers, who was added to the roster as Markstrom’s replacement.

There is no clear-cut favorite at the moment for Sweden, especially with Ullmark trying to shake off the rust. It is a complicated decision for the team’s management and one that could go a long way to determining its fate in this round-robin tournament, which Sweden opens against Canada at Bell Centre in Montreal on Feb. 12 (8 p.m. ET; MAX, truTV, TNT, SN, TVAS).

With that in mind, NHL.com senior writers Dan Rosen and Amalie Benjamin and senior draft writer Mike Morreale got together to debate who should be the No. 1 for Team Sweden in this 4 Nations version of State Your Case.

Morreale: It seems appropriate that Team Sweden would replace Markstrom with Ersson because the latter has been the sharpest in the new year among the three goalies on the roster. And shouldn't that weigh heavily in determining who should get the nod from the start? Before making 39 saves in a 3-2 loss at the Utah Hockey Club on Tuesday, Ersson had been 6-4-0 with a .906 save percentage, 2.52 goals-against average and one shutout in 10 games (all starts) dating to Jan. 1. Gustavsson is 3-5-0 with a 3.83 GAA, .883 save percentage and one shutout in nine games (all starts) in 2025. It’s still unclear how Ullmark will rebound; he played his first game since Dec. 22 on Tuesday, making 34 saves in a 4-3 loss to the Tampa Bay Lightning. To me, the best option at this stage is the 25-year-old Ersson, who has become coach John Tortorella's go-to in the City of Brotherly Love.

Benjamin: I understand the way you’re coming at this, to go with the hot hand. And I also understand that it’s a bit of a risk playing a guy who went six weeks without playing in a game. At the same time, Ullmark was having a fantastic season when he got injured; he was 12-7-2 with a 2.38 GAA and .915 save percentage in 23 games (22 starts). And he’s a guy with a pedigree, having won the William M. Jennings Trophy (with Jeremy Swayman), presented to the goalies for the team that allow the fewest goals in the NHL, and the Vezina Trophy as the best goalie in the NHL in 2023 while with the Boston Bruins. That was just two seasons ago. To me, the 31-year-old brings gravitas to the position, the understanding that he has and can get the job done. Plus, he’s fresh! He hasn’t had the wear and tear the other goalies have had on them during the past two months, and he’ll be raring to go. It’s not an easy pick, but I’d go with Ullmark.

Rosen: Amalie's using exclamation points, so you know she means business. Ullmark is the best of the three goalies. If healthy through the season, he'd be the starter and it wouldn't be a question. But he's not in a rhythm of playing regularly. He needs time to get reacclimated. The Senators will benefit from him being there and practicing instead of being on a beach somewhere during the break, but Sweden can't take the risk of relying on him to get off to a good start in the tournament. Ersson has been playing better of late, but I can't just ignore five goals against in a 6-1 loss to the New York Rangers on Jan. 23 and four against on 16 shots in a 5-0 loss to the Devils on Jan. 29. He's too hot and cold for my liking. Gustavsson has been the steadiest of the three this season. His numbers started to balloon in the past month, coinciding with the Wild losing Kirill Kaprizov and playing without Jonas Brodin, Jared Spurgeon and even Brock Faber for four games. Take away the best skaters on any team and the goalie's stats will take a hit. But Gustavsson will have Sweden's best skaters in front of him, an elite group of defenseman with Victor Hedman, Mattias Ekholm, Erik Karlsson and Gustav Forsling. He will be protected better than he has been in Minnesota, and he will deliver. He's the guy.

Morreale: I agree with Amalie that Ullmark was having a nice season, but again, until Tuesday he hadn't played in more than a month, and this tournament won’t allow a feeling-out process; it's all-in from the get-go. Dan likes to nitpick, but it should be noted that prior to having that tough outing at the Devils, Ersson had gone 6-1-0 with a 2.13 GAA, .918 save percentage and one shutout in his previous seven games. That included a 31-save effort in a 4-2 victory against New Jersey two days earlier. The bottom line is Ersson is having a solid season on a subpar Flyers team, which recently was shut out in three straight games (Jan. 29-Feb. 2). What’s undeniable is Gustavsson is playing for a much more talented team, and his numbers are average. Ersson has exhibited plenty of confidence and emotion, and that's critical of any goalie looking to stop every shot on any given night. This will be Ersson's fifth time representing Sweden internationally, with the most recent instance being the 2024 IIHF World Championship, when he helped his country to a bronze medal with a sparkling 1.44 GAA in four games.

Benjamin: Dan knows I don’t use exclamation points lightly, and I don’t feel like this question is actually a question. That’s partly because I’m taking the long view when I say that the net should be Ullmark’s. Because though the 4 Nations is a great tournament and all of the participants sincerely are looking forward to putting on their country’s colors and playing for national pride, there’s also a way in which the tournament is a chance for countries to see what they might have for a year from now at the 2026 Milano Cortina Olympics. Even with his six-week absence, I believe that Ullmark is the best goalie that Sweden has to offer. So it’s very likely that, come the Olympics, they’ll be relying on the services of the Senators goalie. That’s why I’d get him in now. Not only does it show faith from Sweden’s coaches and management that Ullmark could and should be handed the net in 2026, but it also gives him a chance to get his feet wet in the first best-on-best international hockey that’s been played since the World Cup of Hockey 2016. It’s not a perfect solution to the goaltending situation, but Sweden doesn’t have perfection. This, to me, is the best outcome, in the short and long term.

Rosen: This isn't a get-your-feet-wet tournament. This is best-on-best for these four countries participating. There's a lot on the line. The Olympics are next year. Yes, seeing how a goalie does in this competition will whet the appetite for next year, give a glimpse of what could be to come. Ullmark's spot on Sweden's Olympic team is his to lose. He's been that good that right now, and whether he plays in the 4 Nations Face-Off or doesn't, he has a roster spot. It's on him to keep it. Playing in this tournament is irrelevant. What is relevant is winning this tournament. Ullmark doesn't give Sweden the best chance. Ersson doesn't give Sweden the best chance. And if we're going with Amalie's argument, Ersson shouldn't even be under consideration, because he's at best fourth among the goalies Sweden is looking at for the Olympics next year. Gustavsson is in the top three. That's why he was selected to be on the roster for this tournament. Ullmark isn't fresh. Ersson is off the radar. Gustavsson has been healthy and on the roster the whole time. As soon as Markstrom went down, it became his net. Had Ullmark come back in the past two weeks, I would think differently, but Sweden wants to go win this tournament and Gustavsson gives Tre Kronor the best chance. Guess what? If he does it, that also answers a big question for the Olympics. Can Gustavsson do it? Yes.