NHL EDGE IQ, powered by Amazon Web Services, uses “Projected Goal Rate” (PGR) to estimate the likelihood of a shot attempt becoming a goal. Among Binnington’s saves in the tournament on inference shots attempts (excluding shots greater than 60 feet, those beyond the goal line and empty-net attempts), the highest PGR (27.94 percent) was on Zibanejad’s wrist shot at 8:05 in overtime in the Canada-Sweden game. Canada scored 4:11 later to win its tournament opener.
Binnington’s stop on Matthews’ point-blank attempt at 17:09 in overtime of the United States-Canada rematch had a PGR of 18.78 percent (the fifth-highest PGR on his saves in the tournament); Canada scored 5:27 later to win the championship in sudden-death fashion. For context, anything at or above a PGR of 12.0 percent is considered a high-probability attempt, and the NHL average PGR this season is approximately 5.0 percent across all shot attempts. The average PGR on Binnington’s overtime saves during the tournament was 7.60 percent, higher than any of the three other frames; he played in all four 4 Nations Face-Off games for Canada.
In terms of “Saves Above Projected,” another advanced metric from NHL EDGE IQ, powered by AWS, Binnington’s best period of the tournament was overtime (plus-1.444 saves above projected; compared to differentials of plus-0.794 in second periods, plus-0.205 in first periods, minus-0.232 in third periods). Although his overtime save total (stopped all 10 shots faced in two games) was a smaller sample size than the other periods, those saves were high-magnitude, high-pressure situations where Binnington rose to the occasion.
Binnington made eight saves in the tournament against shots with a 15.0 percent or greater PGR, with six of those stops coming in third period or overtime. In terms of Binnington's less-difficult shots faced in the tournament, he stopped all 22 long-range shots on goal. Hellebuyck, comparatively, allowed one long-range goal. The margin for error was that slim.
The clutch performance not only drew comparisons to the 2019 Stanley Cup Playoffs (Binnington combined to stop 61 of 63 shots faced in two Game 7 wins that postseason, including all 12 in crucial first period of championship clincher) but also proved to be much better than his advanced metrics this NHL season for St. Louis.
Per NHL EDGE IQ, powered by AWS, Binnington’s save percentage on high-probability attempts (12.0 percent or greater PGR) was much better in the 4 Nations Face-Off (.769) compared to this NHL season (.651). Binnington is below the NHL average this season in save percentages on high-danger (.804; League average: .806), midrange (.872; average: .889) and long-range (.957; average: .971) shots on goal.
More improved play from Binnington down the stretch of the NHL season, stemming from this best-on-best tournament prowess, could perhaps propel the Blues (25-26-6; 56 points through 57 games) back into the Western Conference postseason race; coming out of the 4 Nations break with a shootout loss to the Winnipeg Jets, they are now seven points behind the Vancouver Canucks (63 in 56 games) for the second wild card spot. But, regardless of what happens from here, Binnington's individual performances in winner-take-all games in 2019 and 2025 were as good as it gets.
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More: EDGE stats for Binnington
